Boston College was on our sell high list for this week's podcast which you can find by visiting freddywills.com or by searching itunes for college football betting. BC has covered the spread by more than 14 points in back to back week's and have been impressive in doing so against the likes of Louisville and Virginia. Boston College got their running game going rushing for 237 and 364 and that was the difference. Against Florida State they are going to have a tough time running the ball in my opinion.
Florida State ranks similar to BC's recent opponents against the run ranking 44th form a rushing yards per carry perspective. Louisville ranks 50th, and Virginia ranks 56th. From that perspective you would assume BC would be able to run the ball here, but I actually think they can't. Florida State's defense is really under rated and have played a tough schedule. I think they are a top 20 defense, and facing a one dimensional attack they should be able to shut this offense down.
When looking at Boston College's recent opponent run defenses we find out that Virginia played an average opponent ranking 92nd in rushing offense. When looking at Louisville they have played an average opponent rank of 72nd in rushing offense. Florida State has faced three top 30 rushing offenses with an overall 44th ranking. So I think Florida State's defense can dominate in this game.
Offensively is where Florida State has struggled and we have to bring it up. Florida State however is finally playing a poor defense. Boston College ranking 112th vs. the run. Obviously Florida State with an inexperienced QB in James Blackman who cost them their last game against Louisvile in the final minute needs to run the ball. Watch out for freshman Cam Akers in this one who will be getting the bulk of the carries. Florida State has faced very good run defenses so far ranking 1, 14, 41, 58, 55, 50. The 58th ranked run defense was Miami who is better than that ranking.
Motivation is the last thing we want to look at. No doubts Florida State had higher hopes this year. They came in ranked #2 in the country, but the hurricane really threw their season off along with the injury to their QB Francois. They are playing a lot of young players now on offense, and it is pivotal that they get to a bowl game and get extra practice. Jimbo Fisher is a good coach and I think this is just the week it happens where they get a big win. I'm not concerned with the short week and travel they just have a big talent edge. Fisher typically will concentrate on running the ball more on the road which is what this team should have been doing all along.
